Nasdaq led the chaos with a late-day buying-panic (nope, no fundamental catalysts) as stocks seemed committed to the post-recession reaction function rather than the actual recession…
Aside from the COVID lockdowns, this is the weakest level for US Macro Surprise Index since Aug 2011…
Source: Bloomberg
So it’s no wonder that rate-hike odds are sliding fast… despite Powell’s “unconditional” commitment to fight inflation…
Source: Bloomberg
The market has basically adjusted to price in rate-hikes into September (ahead of the Midterms) and then an increasing chance of either a pause or actual rate-cuts…
Source: Bloomberg
Crude slipped lower…
And so did Dr. Copper, crashing to the lowest since Feb 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Bonds were bid across the curve with the belly outperforming the wings (5Y -10bps, 2Y -4bps, 30Y-6bps). Since CPI, 2Y is up 20bps, 30Y up around 4bps…
Source: Bloomberg
10Y Yields plunged back to tag 3.00% – erasing all of the 50bps post-CPI spike…
Source: Bloomberg
European bond yields also plunged today…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ended the day flat with another overnight Asia rally dumped during the European session…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin ended the day higher, finding support at $20,000…
Source: Bloomberg
Elsewhere in the energy complex, US NatGas plunged 10% after inventories rose following the Freeport LNG closure and at the same time, EU NatGas soared after Germany elevated its ‘risk level’ on fears of Russian gas supply…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold rallied early on as rate-hike odds eased, but was hit lower after Europe closed to end the day down. Still holding above $1800 for now…
Finally, we note that DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach’s favorite bond indicator – Copper/Gold – is signaling a notable leg lower in yields is overdue…
Source: Bloomberg
Did Dr. Copper price in the recession first and bonds are yet to catch down?
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/23/2022 – 16:01
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Author: Tyler Durden
