Update: Well, unlike 2014 when the ISM revised its latest report not once but twice, it appears that today’s revision will only focus on historical numbers, because as Bloomberg reports January numbers remain valid, and only the Historical data on supplier deliveries will be adjusted.
- ISM SAYS ITS U.S. JANUARY MANUFACTURING NUMBERS REMAIN VALID
- ISM SAYS IT’S CORRECTING HISTORICAL DATA ON SUPPLIER DELIVERIES
For those asking, this is how the Supplier Deliveries data looked historically:
* * *
Did ISM just screw up the release of today’s solid ISM “beat”, which as a reminder printed at 50.9, far above the 48.5 contraction print expected, and the biggest monthly increase since July 2013 (and which came at a time when the Markit Mfg PMI continued to decline)?
… and nothing else. And while some have suggested this may be a historical revision, note that unlike US government agencies, the ISM does not periodically revise its historical data higher or lower, which suggests even today’s number may be subject to revision.
So is ISM about to surprise us with a new ISM report, one which actually makes sense in the context of a global economy which is suddenly grinding to a halt as a result of the coronavirus epidemic in China, and shows a far lower headline PMI.
For new readers who may be surprised by this, this wouldn’t be the first time ISM has “adjusted” data it has reported: back in June 2014, the ISM revised its reported May 2014 data not once but twice, sparking a discussion if the ISM “data” is just randomly generated and politically biased, similar to what happens in China.
Fast forward to today when we may have a similar discussion any minute now.
Mon, 02/03/2020 – 12:14
Go to Source
Author: Tyler Durden