The Iowa caucuses begin tonight at 8 p.m. ET, marking the first nominating contest of the 2020 election cycle. Democrats across the states will head to their local precinct caucus locations to vote for their desired candidate to take on Donald Trump in the November election.
There are 1,678 neighborhood locations and 87 “satellite caucuses” around the world, where delegates will be chosen for the Iowa state party convention who will be sent on to the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee July 13-16 to represent their candidates.
How it works
During each caucus meeting, attendees physically group themselves by candidate, in what’s known as the “first alignment.” Any candidate who fails to garner at least 15% of the vote is declared non-viable, and their supporters can either join other groups or try to appeal to others to join them. Then, a second vote known as the “final alignment” is held to determine how delegates are awarded.
On Sunday, Democratic presidential candidates competed with the Super Bowl in a last-minute bid to appeal to Iowans. And while a Saturday night pre-caucus poll which has historically shed light on where the candidates stand was canceled due to a ‘survey error,’ Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is largely seen as the frontrunner going into Mondays contest, after an Emerson College poll on Sunday showed him with 28% support followed by Joe Biden at 21%, Pete Buttigieg at 15%, and Elizabeth Warren at 14%. That said, 34% of those polled said they could change their vote.
Notably, President Trump lost the Iowa caucus in 2016.
Public polling has shown Mr. Sanders gaining ground, and he has outspent all of the other leading Democrats on television by a wide margin in recent weeks. A New York Times polling average found Mr. Sanders and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. tied for first place in the state, with each of them collecting support from about 22 percent of likely caucusgoers. Trailing them in third and fourth place were former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. –New York Times
And if Sanders takes Iowa, he will have a good shot at carrying that momentum into New Hampshire’s primary next week – where he is already considered to have the top spot – and then on to Nevada on February 22.
That said, as the Times notes, “there is still widespread concern among Democratic Party leaders and center-left primary voters about the implications of nominating a self-described democratic socialist to take on President Trump.”
His chief opponents are unlikely to give way easily: Even if he is defeated here, Mr. Biden has a strong national following among moderate voters and African-Americans, while Ms. Warren retains a sizable base among educated liberals and women. And Michael R. Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City, is looming as a competitor in the March primary states. –New York Times
Meanwhile, 2020 candidate Mike Bloomberg – who just got into a fight with President Trump over his height, is skipping Iowa and will instead engage in a massive advertising campaign in later-voting states.
According to the betting lines, Bloomberg is gaining ground as Biden collapses, but it’s Bernie that is becoming the strong favorite to get the Dem nod…
No wonder the DNC is working so hard against him.
Mon, 02/03/2020 – 10:16
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Author: Tyler Durden