Doubtful ECB Can Prevent Recession, Former IMF Chief Economist Warns

European equity and credit markets have exploded higher on the heels of Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” double-down this week, former IMF Chief Economist, Olivier Blanchard spoke to CNBC Europe, pouring some rational cold water on the exuberant market sentiment…

I’m sure they’ll do whatever they can, but whether it has major effects [on the real economy], I am doubtful.”

“I am nearly sure that the ECB, by itself, cannot right a recession. It will need help, it’s fairly obvious.”

When asked if the world’s central banks have enough ammunition, Blanchard once again reflects pessimistically, noting that:

“they have a lot of ammunition, the question is how much it kills…

…because they can buy assets in very large quantities but the fact is at this stage it has very little effects on the rates [and thus the economy] which is all that matters in the end.

Blacnhard does have a solution, however…

Monetary policy needs help, from fiscal policy… we can do a few other things like structural reforms but they don’t do any good in the short-run… yes, I think [the central banks] need help.”

The only problem with the IMF chief economist’s view is that policymakers will do nothing until the crisis “of bad numbers” actually occurs, warning that “Germany, who has been set in their [frugal] ways, will have to give in.”

Makes you wonder if buying European stocks and credit was so smart after all eh?

Watch the full interview below…

h/t Global Macro Monitor

Go to Source
Author: Tyler Durden

0 0 votes
Article Rating


Inline Feedbacks
View all comments